Publius at Legal Fiction says Bush will lose. It's sometimes like he reads my mind. We both had that same revelation today. I can't remember who it was that I heard describing it, but the Clinton team had a moment like that in 1992. One day, all of a sudden, Clinton looked at this aide, and they just realized that they were going to be in the White House. It wasn't academic. It wasn't a game. It wasn't partisan. They were going to win. I bet Kerry and his people started feeling this a day or two after the debate, maybe a little after the Newsweek poll came out, showing them with an 11 point bump. Everything is clicking.
Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo has been spreading the mechanics of this out over several posts, but there were several things that all combined to make me feel good today.
- Post-debate spin. Like Publius, I didn't really think anyone was a big winner after the VP debate, but the fact checking and the analysis afterward made me feel like Democrats actually have their shit together. Having their shit together is how people win. Democrats were ready, we were out front on the meaningless web polls. Bloggers and the DNC were fact-checking Cheney as he lied his ass off. We were out telling people we felt like winners, when the margin seemed small.
- Bremer. When the former pro-consul bolts the fold, things are going downhill.
- WMD. When the administration's guy says that there weren't WMD, there weren't weapons of mass destruction, and there weren't even weapons of mass destruction program related activities, things are bad for Bush. He's staked too much on Iraq to pull back, but there's no leverage left to make it seem like a good idea.
- Americans are seeing what news junkies have been seeing for years. The lies, the viciousness, the discomfort with evidence, they're all coming home to roost. Bush and Cheney are falling into the story line that Democrats and the smart Republicans closest to the administration have been pushing.
This is how we win. We act confident, we present our case and our story and we listen to the people who won last time. God bless you Bruce Lockhart, Mike McCurry, and most of all God bless you Bill Clinton. Once you stepped in, things started looking like they should.