Sunday, October 24, 2004

Moore trouncing Kobach in KC Star poll

Moore 50%
Kobach 38%
MoE 4%

According to a Kansas City Star poll (via the ever vigilant Kriswatch).

The race is closer among men than among women, and the Star oversampled women by calling during the baseball playoffs. There are a couple lessons in that. First, the poll may be somewhat skewed. I don't know the breakdown of voters by sex in the last presidential election year, but I bet it wasn't 57% of voters. If we simply re-weight to a 50-50 distribution, Moore is still taking 49.5% of the voters, with 38.5 going to Kobach.

Kobach laughably claims (in the Star piece) that all the undecideds will go against the incumbent, so they are all set to win. If we assume the strongest form of the incumbency rule, Moore should worry. That would be a rule that anyone who isn't ready to vote for the incumbent a week out from the election will go for the challenger. For context, if that were true, Kerry would be boxing up his Senate office to ship over to the White House.

Kriswatch uses the 2-1 split rule, that 2 undecided voters go to the challenger for every undecided that chooses the incumbent, and points out the two conservative 3rd party candidates who might siphon off Kobach votes. Let's assume that Kobach has run so far to the right that there isn't any room in the fringe for the 3rd parties. Let's even grant a 3-1 split, and a 50-50 sex ratio. In that scenario, Kobach gets 46.75% of the vote, and Moore wins with a crushing 52.5%.

For whatever reason, 69% of people concerned with terrorism went for Kobach, as did a similar proportion of people voting on moral issues (abortion, gay marriage, etc.)

Moore gets similar fractions of the voters who are concerned about the economy or education, and 58% of people concerned with Iraq. Iraq hasn't been an issue, and Moore always took a disappointingly moderate stance on it, but that seems to be paying off. If this were tighter, Moore could win by attacking Kobach and the Ashcroft Justice Department. The stunning zero courtroom convictions in terrorism cases would be catastrophic for that 69%, I bet.

At this point, the game shifts. Kobach is doomed to lose, baring something horrific. If he's smart, he uses whatever DCCC money and his own war chest to do two things.

  1. Win convincingly. Don't let the split be 3-1, make it 1-1 or 2-1. Scare off challengers for next time.
  2. Help Boyda and Broomfield. Get a leadership PAC going, elect some people who will be beholden to him, and help take back the House.

But all you people were wondering what I'll do now. Well, I think I'll keep tracking down the extremist connections here. Hopefully some of that will be useful for someone two years from now, or maybe even this cycle. More on that later.

For now, a warm glow.