Tuesday, October 25, 2005

Arbitrage opportunity?

Newsfutures puts the probability of Karl Rove being indicted at around 48%, the probability that he'll resign from the White House at 75%. Is there really a substantial chance that he'll resign without being indicted? If not, there's a buying opportunity.

Scooter Libby is toast, probability of indictment near 100%.

Harriet Miers is still hovering at around 40% probability of getting onto the Court, and people are remarkably optimistic (in my opinion) about the probability that bin Laden will get caught before the next inaugural.