Thursday, June 15, 2006

Still unpopular president

While last month's crash in Bush's popularity in Kansas seems to have been a sampling artifact, the President remains unpopular here and everywhere. In SurveyUSA 's 50 State poll of Presidential approval, only five states have the president above 50%, and those are also the only states where he has a net positive approval.

Kansas gives him 53% disapproval and 43% approval, putting Kansas at 13th place.

Among Republicans, his favorability is still below the level it was two months ago, the Liebermanesque Democrats who like him haven't changed their opinion, but Independents narrowed their disapproval substantially this month, dropping from 38% net disapproval to only 10% disapproval. That shift explains most of the return to recent month's trends.

Conservative and moderate approval returned to the levels they were at a month ago, and liberal approval increased from -70% net approval two months ago to -53% net approval.

Western Kansas returned to where it was two months ago, Wichita's opinion is unchanged, and Eastern Kansas has not bounced back from last month as much as other regions. Two months ago, it had -10% net approval, last month it spiked to -33% net approval, and this month the net approval has settled down to -22%.

Given last month's wild numbers, it's hard to know what the underlying trend is. Did approval really collapse last month, and did Zarqawi's death give the President a rebound? Or was last month a statistical fluke, an unexpectedly skewed sample that should just be ignored? I'm guessing a bit of both.